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Chindia Targoviste vs FC Clinceni — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
4/25/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 32Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chindia Targoviste37%
×Draw26%
FC Clinceni38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.36
FC Clinceni
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
FC Clinceni
1.74

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
FC Clinceni
0.79

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
62%
Chindia Targoviste or FC Clinceni
74%
Draw or FC Clinceni
63%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
17%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
74%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
39%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
16%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
75%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
40%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
49%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + FC Clinceni defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Clinceni attack 1.74 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
37%
level
26%
FC Clinceni scores more
38%

FC Clinceni at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chindia Targoviste vs FC Clinceni

Chindia Targoviste beat FC Clinceni 1-0 in Liga II on April 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).