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Chindia Targoviste vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
5/25/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 37Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chindia Targoviste64%
×Draw20%
CS Luceafarul Oradea16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
2.09
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.93

Chindia Targoviste creates 125% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
84%
Chindia Targoviste or CS Luceafarul Oradea
80%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
36%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
40%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
88%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
62%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
34%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
61%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
80%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.09

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
64%
level
20%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
16%

Chindia Targoviste at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chindia Targoviste vs CS Luceafarul Oradea

Chindia Targoviste beat CS Luceafarul Oradea 4-1 in Liga II on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).