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Chindia Targoviste vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
2/22/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 22Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chindia Targoviste62%
×Draw21%
Aerostar Bacau17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
2.08
Aerostar Bacau
0.99

Chindia Targoviste creates 110% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
83%
Chindia Targoviste or Aerostar Bacau
79%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
38%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
38%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
87%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
61%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
34%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
63%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
26%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
78%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
62%
level
21%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
17%

Chindia Targoviste at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Chindia Targoviste 3–2 Aerostar Bacau

Chindia Targoviste beat Aerostar Bacau 3-2 in Liga II on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).