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Chindia Targoviste vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
11/29/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chindia Targoviste53%
×Draw24%
ACS Sirineasa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.75
ACS Sirineasa
1.06

Chindia Targoviste creates 65% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
77%
Chindia Targoviste or ACS Sirineasa
76%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
47%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
30%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
83%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
52%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
25%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
65%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
29%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
70%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
53%
level
24%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
23%

Chindia Targoviste at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Chindia Targoviste 2–2 ACS Sirineasa

Chindia Targoviste and ACS Sirineasa drew 2-2 in Liga II on November 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).