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Chinato vs Valdivia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Chinato
Chinato
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valdivia
Valdivia
12/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 8Estadio Eras de las Matas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chinato61%
×Draw23%
Valdivia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chinato
1.80
Valdivia
0.81

Chinato creates 122% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Chinato
1.33
Valdivia
0.55

allows per match

Chinato
1.07
Valdivia
2.28

finishing

Chinato+0.00on par
Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinato ↓

Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chinato or draw
84%
Chinato or Valdivia
77%
Draw or Valdivia
39%

Winning margin

Chinato wins by 2+
35%
Valdivia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chinato 1+ goals
83%
Chinato 2+ goals
54%
Chinato 3+ goals
27%
Valdivia 1+ goals
56%
Valdivia 2+ goals
19%
Valdivia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chinato (draw refunded)
79%
Valdivia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinato at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Valdivia away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinato attack 1.33 + Valdivia defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.80

Valdivia attack 0.55 + Chinato defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chinato scores more
61%
level
23%
Valdivia scores more
16%

Chinato at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chinato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chinato vs Valdivia

Chinato beat Valdivia 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Eras de las Matas in Cáceres.