Chinato 1–1 Llerenense: Result & Stats

Chinato

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Llerenense

4/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Eras de las Matas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chinato40%

×Draw27%

Llerenense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChinatoExpected goals in this matchLlerenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Chinato

1.31

Llerenense

1.15

Chinato creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

1.33

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Chinato

1.33

Llerenense

1.23

allows per match

Chinato

1.07

Llerenense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chinato+0.00on par

Llerenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinato ↓

Llerenense →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chinato or draw

67%

Chinato or Llerenense

73%

Draw or Llerenense

60%

Winning margin

Chinato wins by 2+

18%

Llerenense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chinato 1+ goals

73%

Chinato 2+ goals

38%

Chinato 3+ goals

14%

Llerenense 1+ goals

68%

Llerenense 2+ goals

32%

Llerenense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chinato (draw refunded)

55%

Llerenense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chinato at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Llerenense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chinato attack 1.33 + Llerenense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Llerenense attack 1.23 + Chinato defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chinato scores more

40%

level

27%

Llerenense scores more

33%

Chinato at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chinato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff