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Chinato vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Chinato
Chinato
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Eras de las Matas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chinato49%
×Draw26%
Fuente Cantos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chinato
1.50
Fuente Cantos
0.98

Chinato creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Chinato
1.33
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

Chinato
1.07
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

Chinato+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinato ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chinato or draw
75%
Chinato or Fuente Cantos
74%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
51%

Winning margin

Chinato wins by 2+
25%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chinato 1+ goals
78%
Chinato 2+ goals
44%
Chinato 3+ goals
19%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
62%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
26%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chinato (draw refunded)
67%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinato at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinato attack 1.33 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Chinato defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chinato scores more
49%
level
26%
Fuente Cantos scores more
25%

Chinato at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chinato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Chinato 4–1 Fuente Cantos

Chinato beat Fuente Cantos 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Eras de las Matas in Cáceres.