Chinandega 2–1 Real Madriz: Result & Stats

Chinandega

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madriz

D. Rodríguez 90+2'

D. Quiñones 77'

J. Ramírez 85'

11/24/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 17Estadio La Veranera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chinandega50%

×Draw24%

Real Madriz26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChinandegaExpected goals in this matchReal Madriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.21

Chinandega

1.76

Real Madriz

1.21

Chinandega creates 45% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 73 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

1.65

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Chinandega

1.35

Real Madriz

0.78

allows per match

Chinandega

1.65

Real Madriz

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chinandega+0.00on par

Real Madriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinandega ↓

Real Madriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chinandega or draw

74%

Chinandega or Real Madriz

76%

Draw or Real Madriz

50%

Winning margin

Chinandega wins by 2+

27%

Real Madriz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chinandega 1+ goals

83%

Chinandega 2+ goals

52%

Chinandega 3+ goals

26%

Real Madriz 1+ goals

70%

Real Madriz 2+ goals

34%

Real Madriz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chinandega (draw refunded)

66%

Real Madriz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinandega at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

Real Madriz away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinandega attack 1.35 + Real Madriz defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.76

Real Madriz attack 0.78 + Chinandega defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chinandega scores more

50%

level

24%

Real Madriz scores more

26%

Chinandega at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chinandega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

D. Ortega← P. Aguirre

72'

J. Torres← M. Barrios

77'

D. Quiñones

85'

J. Ramírez

88'

D. Suazo← G. Gradiz

90+2'

M. Ortega← R. Espinoza

90+2'

D. Rodríguez

Chinandega

Real

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Espinoza

72'▲J. Torres←▼M. Barrios

Chinandega substitutes

TorresMelendezJiménezMarcosRíosLosadaVenerio

Manager: A. Orellana

66'▲D. Ortega←▼P. Aguirre

88'▲D. Suazo←▼G. Gradiz

90+2'▲M. Ortega←▼R. Espinoza

Real Madriz substitutes

OrtegaSuazoOrtegaRamírezDíazRodríguezEspinoza