Chinandega 2–2 Junior Managua: Result & Stats

Chinandega

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Junior Managua

D. Quiñones 90+2'

E. Morán 57'

J. Rosales 87'

F. Sanchez 62'

8/23/2020

Primera Division · Apertura - 5Estadio La Veranera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chinandega44%

×Draw25%

Junior Managua31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChinandegaExpected goals in this matchJunior Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.27

Chinandega

1.56

Junior Managua

1.27

Chinandega creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

0.89

1.65

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Chinandega

1.35

Junior Managua

0.89

allows per match

Chinandega

1.65

Junior Managua

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chinandega+0.00on par

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinandega ↓

Junior Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chinandega or draw

69%

Chinandega or Junior Managua

75%

Draw or Junior Managua

56%

Winning margin

Chinandega wins by 2+

22%

Junior Managua wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chinandega 1+ goals

79%

Chinandega 2+ goals

46%

Chinandega 3+ goals

21%

Junior Managua 1+ goals

72%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

36%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chinandega (draw refunded)

59%

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinandega at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

Junior Managua away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinandega attack 1.35 + Junior Managua defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Chinandega defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chinandega scores more

44%

level

25%

Junior Managua scores more

31%

Chinandega at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chinandega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Narvaez← C. Ortega

57'

E. Morán

58'

J. López← E. Aguirre

58'

J. Gonzalez← Y. Rodríguez

62'

F. Sanchez

72'

R. Lopez

74'

E. Alcázar← J. Vega

75'

C. Membreño← F. Sanchez

87'

J. Rosales

90+2'

D. Quiñones

Chinandega

Junior

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: R. Espinoza

58'▲J. López←▼E. Aguirre

74'▲E. Alcázar←▼J. Vega

Chinandega substitutes

LópezAlcázarMendozaGutiérrezAmadorBarriosValverde

Manager: T. Acevedo

46'▲E. Narvaez←▼C. Ortega

58'▲J. Gonzalez←▼Y. Rodríguez

75'▲C. Membreño←▼F. Sanchez

Junior Managua substitutes

NarvaezGonzalezMembreñoSequeiraEspinozaCastilloPadilla