Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chinandega vs Deportivo Las Sabanas — Primera Division 2019

Chinandega
Chinandega
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1/26/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 1Estadio La Veranera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chinandega49%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Las Sabanas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chinandega
1.64
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.12

Chinandega creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chinandega
1.32
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.58

allows per match

Chinandega
1.66
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.95

finishing

Chinandega+0.00on par
Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinandega ↓

Deportivo Las Sabanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chinandega or draw
74%
Chinandega or Deportivo Las Sabanas
75%
Draw or Deportivo Las Sabanas
51%

Winning margin

Chinandega wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chinandega 1+ goals
81%
Chinandega 2+ goals
49%
Chinandega 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chinandega (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinandega at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinandega attack 1.32 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.58 + Chinandega defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chinandega scores more
49%
level
25%
Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
26%

Chinandega at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chinandega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chinandega vs Deportivo Las Sabanas

Chinandega beat Deportivo Las Sabanas 3-0 in Primera Division on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Veranera in La Veranera.