China W 6–1 Vietnam W: Result & Stats

China W

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vietnam W

Y. Lu 82'

Shao Ziqin 72'

Zhang Xin 62'

Jin Kun 52'

Wurigumula 49'

Wang Linlin 8'

T. Nguyen Thi 66'

2/13/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

China W86%

×Draw10%

Vietnam W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

China WExpected goals in this matchVietnam W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.91

0.45

China W

2.91

Vietnam W

0.45

China W creates 547% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

2.38

creates per match

0.29

0.62

allows per match

3.43

creates per match

China W

2.38

Vietnam W

0.29

allows per match

China W

0.62

Vietnam W

3.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

China W+0.00on par

Vietnam W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

China W ↓

Vietnam W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–17%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

China W or draw

96%

China W or Vietnam W

90%

Draw or Vietnam W

14%

Winning margin

China W wins by 2+

68%

Vietnam W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

China W 1+ goals

94%

China W 2+ goals

78%

China W 3+ goals

54%

Vietnam W 1+ goals

36%

Vietnam W 2+ goals

8%

Vietnam W 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

China W (draw refunded)

96%

Vietnam W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

China W at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Vietnam W away — creates 0.29, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

China W attack 2.38 + Vietnam W defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.91

Vietnam W attack 0.29 + China W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

China W scores more

86%

level

10%

Vietnam W scores more

4%

China W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "China W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

49'

52'

62'

66'

72'

82'

China

Vietnam

Manager: Ante Milicic

Manager: Duc Chung Mai