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China W vs Uzbekistan W — Friendlies Women 2026

China W
China W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Uzbekistan W
Uzbekistan W
Tang Jiali 82'
Qiaozhu Chen 54'
Wang Yanwen 27'
10/26/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 1Yongchuan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

China W73%
×Draw16%
Uzbekistan W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

China W
2.43
Uzbekistan W
0.79

China W creates 208% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

creates per match

China W
2.38
Uzbekistan W
0.96

allows per match

China W
0.62
Uzbekistan W
2.48

finishing

China W+0.00on par
Uzbekistan W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

China W ↓

Uzbekistan W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

China W or draw
90%
China W or Uzbekistan W
84%
Draw or Uzbekistan W
27%

Winning margin

China W wins by 2+
50%
Uzbekistan W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

China W 1+ goals
91%
China W 2+ goals
69%
China W 3+ goals
43%
Uzbekistan W 1+ goals
55%
Uzbekistan W 2+ goals
19%
Uzbekistan W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

China W (draw refunded)
88%
Uzbekistan W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

China W at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Uzbekistan W away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

China W attack 2.38 + Uzbekistan W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.43

Uzbekistan W attack 0.96 + China W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

China W scores more
73%
level
16%
Uzbekistan W scores more
10%

China W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "China W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Wang Yanwen
54'
Qiaozhu Chen
82'
Tang Jiali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: China W 3–0 Uzbekistan W

China W beat Uzbekistan W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on October 26, 2024.

Goals: Wang Yanwen (27'), Qiaozhu Chen (54'), Tang Jiali (82').

The match was played at Yongchuan Sports Centre in Yongchuan.