China W 4–0 Chinese Taipei W: Result & Stats

China W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chinese Taipei W

2/22/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesPinatar Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

China W68%

×Draw19%

Chinese Taipei W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

China WExpected goals in this matchChinese Taipei W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.88

China W

2.25

Chinese Taipei W

0.88

China W creates 156% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

2.38

creates per match

1.13

0.62

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

China W

2.38

Chinese Taipei W

1.13

allows per match

China W

0.62

Chinese Taipei W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

China W+0.00on par

Chinese Taipei W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

China W ↓

Chinese Taipei W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

China W or draw

87%

China W or Chinese Taipei W

81%

Draw or Chinese Taipei W

32%

Winning margin

China W wins by 2+

45%

Chinese Taipei W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

China W 1+ goals

89%

China W 2+ goals

65%

China W 3+ goals

39%

Chinese Taipei W 1+ goals

59%

Chinese Taipei W 2+ goals

22%

Chinese Taipei W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

China W (draw refunded)

84%

Chinese Taipei W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

China W at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Chinese Taipei W away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

China W attack 2.38 + Chinese Taipei W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.25

Chinese Taipei W attack 1.13 + China W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

China W scores more

68%

level

19%

Chinese Taipei W scores more

13%

China W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "China W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff