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China vs Tajikistan — Friendlies 2026

China
China
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tajikistan
Tajikistan
6/11/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Tianhe Stadium (Guangzhou (Canton))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

China59%
×Draw28%
Tajikistan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

China
1.38
Tajikistan
0.48

China creates 188% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

China
1.33
Tajikistan
0.63

allows per match

China
0.33
Tajikistan
1.42

finishing

China+0.00on par
Tajikistan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

China ↓

Tajikistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

China or draw
87%
China or Tajikistan
72%
Draw or Tajikistan
41%

Winning margin

China wins by 2+
30%
Tajikistan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

China 1+ goals
75%
China 2+ goals
40%
China 3+ goals
16%
Tajikistan 1+ goals
38%
Tajikistan 2+ goals
8%
Tajikistan 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

China (draw refunded)
82%
Tajikistan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

China at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Tajikistan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

China attack 1.33 + Tajikistan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tajikistan attack 0.63 + China defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

China scores more
59%
level
28%
Tajikistan scores more
13%

China at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "China will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: China vs Tajikistan

China beat Tajikistan 1-0 in Friendlies on June 11, 2019.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium (Guangzhou (Canton)).