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Djoliba vs Mamahira — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
3 – 1
Mamahira
Mamahira
12/22/2019Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 9Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Djoliba67%
×Draw22%
Mamahira11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.79
Mamahira
0.56

Djoliba creates 220% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 11 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Mamahira
0.64

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
Mamahira
2.00

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Mamahira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Mamahira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
89%
Djoliba or Mamahira
78%
Draw or Mamahira
33%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
40%
Mamahira wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
83%
Djoliba 2+ goals
53%
Djoliba 3+ goals
26%
Mamahira 1+ goals
43%
Mamahira 2+ goals
11%
Mamahira 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
86%
Mamahira (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 98 matches

Mamahira away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Mamahira defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Mamahira attack 0.64 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Djoliba scores more
67%
level
22%
Mamahira scores more
11%

Djoliba at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Première Division: Djoliba 3–1 Mamahira

Djoliba beat Mamahira 3-1 in Première Division on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.