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China U22 vs Uzbekistan U23 — Friendlies 2018

China U22
China U22
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Uzbekistan U23
Uzbekistan U23
6/16/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

China U2229%
×Draw28%
Uzbekistan U2343%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

China U22
1.04
Uzbekistan U23
1.33

Uzbekistan U23 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

China U22
0.75
Uzbekistan U23
1.67

allows per match

China U22
1.00
Uzbekistan U23
1.33

finishing

China U22+0.00on par
Uzbekistan U23+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

China U22 ↓

Uzbekistan U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

China U22 or draw
57%
China U22 or Uzbekistan U23
72%
Draw or Uzbekistan U23
71%

Winning margin

China U22 wins by 2+
11%
Uzbekistan U23 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

China U22 1+ goals
65%
China U22 2+ goals
28%
China U22 3+ goals
9%
Uzbekistan U23 1+ goals
74%
Uzbekistan U23 2+ goals
38%
Uzbekistan U23 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

China U22 (draw refunded)
40%
Uzbekistan U23 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

China U22 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Uzbekistan U23 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

China U22 attack 0.75 + Uzbekistan U23 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Uzbekistan U23 attack 1.67 + China U22 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

China U22 scores more
29%
level
28%
Uzbekistan U23 scores more
43%

Uzbekistan U23 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Uzbekistan U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: China U22 vs Uzbekistan U23

Uzbekistan U23 beat China U22 3-1 in Friendlies on June 16, 2023.