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China PR U23 vs Thailand U23 — Friendlies 2025

China PR U23
China PR U23
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Thailand U23
Thailand U23
X. Li 67'
Xiang Yuwang 50'
C. Saelao 35'
J. Mamah 23'
3/25/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

China PR U2361%
×Draw23%
Thailand U2316%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

China PR U23
1.79
Thailand U23
0.78

China PR U23 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

China PR U23
1.57
Thailand U23
1.00

allows per match

China PR U23
0.57
Thailand U23
2.00

finishing

China PR U23+0.00on par
Thailand U23+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

China PR U23 ↓

Thailand U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

China PR U23 or draw
84%
China PR U23 or Thailand U23
77%
Draw or Thailand U23
39%

Winning margin

China PR U23 wins by 2+
35%
Thailand U23 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

China PR U23 1+ goals
83%
China PR U23 2+ goals
53%
China PR U23 3+ goals
26%
Thailand U23 1+ goals
54%
Thailand U23 2+ goals
18%
Thailand U23 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

China PR U23 (draw refunded)
79%
Thailand U23 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

China PR U23 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Thailand U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

China PR U23 attack 1.57 + Thailand U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Thailand U23 attack 1.00 + China PR U23 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

China PR U23 scores more
61%
level
23%
Thailand U23 scores more
16%

China PR U23 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "China PR U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
J. Mamah
35'
C. Saelao
50'
Xiang Yuwang
67'
X. Li
90+9'
O. Thiangkham

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: China PR U23 2–2 Thailand U23

China PR U23 and Thailand U23 drew 2-2 in Friendlies on March 25, 2026.

Goals: J. Mamah (23'), C. Saelao (35'), Xiang Yuwang (50'), X. Li (67').