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China PR U20 vs Uzbekistan U20 — Friendlies 2025

China PR U20
China PR U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Uzbekistan U20
Uzbekistan U20
2/5/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

China PR U2023%
×Draw29%
Uzbekistan U2048%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

China PR U20
0.79
Uzbekistan U20
1.29

Uzbekistan U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

China PR U20
1.25
Uzbekistan U20
1.33

allows per match

China PR U20
1.25
Uzbekistan U20
0.33

finishing

China PR U20+0.00on par
Uzbekistan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

China PR U20 ↓

Uzbekistan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

China PR U20 or draw
52%
China PR U20 or Uzbekistan U20
71%
Draw or Uzbekistan U20
77%

Winning margin

China PR U20 wins by 2+
7%
Uzbekistan U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

China PR U20 1+ goals
55%
China PR U20 2+ goals
19%
China PR U20 3+ goals
5%
Uzbekistan U20 1+ goals
72%
Uzbekistan U20 2+ goals
37%
Uzbekistan U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

China PR U20 (draw refunded)
32%
Uzbekistan U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

China PR U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Uzbekistan U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

China PR U20 attack 1.25 + Uzbekistan U20 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Uzbekistan U20 attack 1.33 + China PR U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

China PR U20 scores more
23%
level
29%
Uzbekistan U20 scores more
48%

Uzbekistan U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Uzbekistan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: China PR U20 vs Uzbekistan U20

China PR U20 beat Uzbekistan U20 1-0 in Friendlies on February 5, 2026.