China PR U20 vs Australia U20 — Friendlies 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
China PR U2045%
Australia U2031%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
China PR U20 creates 23% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
China PR U20 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
China PR U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
Australia U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
China PR U20 attack 1.25 + Australia U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63
Australia U20 attack 1.40 + China PR U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
China PR U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "China PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
China PR U20 host Australia U20 on Saturday, 28 March 2026 at 07:00. The match is part of the Friendlies 2025/2026 season.
Friendlies: China PR U20 1–0 Australia U20
China PR U20 beat Australia U20 1-0 in Friendlies on March 28, 2026.
Goals: Yang Mingrui (26').
The match was played at Yiwu Meihu Stadium in Yiwu.