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Chile W vs New Zealand W — Friendlies Women 2026

Chile W
Chile W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
New Zealand W
New Zealand W
9/26/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Non-FIFA FriendliesComplejo Deportivo Colegio Quillón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chile W66%
×Draw21%
New Zealand W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chile W
1.92
New Zealand W
0.72

Chile W creates 167% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Chile W
1.83
New Zealand W
0.48

allows per match

Chile W
0.96
New Zealand W
2.00

finishing

Chile W+0.00on par
New Zealand W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chile W ↓

New Zealand W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chile W or draw
87%
Chile W or New Zealand W
79%
Draw or New Zealand W
34%

Winning margin

Chile W wins by 2+
40%
New Zealand W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chile W 1+ goals
85%
Chile W 2+ goals
57%
Chile W 3+ goals
30%
New Zealand W 1+ goals
51%
New Zealand W 2+ goals
16%
New Zealand W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chile W (draw refunded)
83%
New Zealand W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chile W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

New Zealand W away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chile W attack 1.83 + New Zealand W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

New Zealand W attack 0.48 + Chile W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chile W scores more
66%
level
21%
New Zealand W scores more
13%

Chile W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chile W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chile W vs New Zealand W

Chile W beat New Zealand W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on September 26, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Colegio Quillón in Quillón.