Chile 6–1 Panama: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Chile

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Panama

Steffan Pino 82'

Lucas Cepeda 53'

Nicolás Guerra 42', 25', 2'

Ariel Uribe 5'

Cecilio Waterman 30' (pen)

2/8/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Chile70%

×Draw17%

Panama13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChileExpected goals in this matchPanama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.94

Chile

2.44

Panama

0.94

Chile creates 160% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 30 away

2.67

creates per match

0.80

1.08

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Chile

2.67

Panama

0.80

allows per match

Chile

1.08

Panama

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chile+0.00on par

Panama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chile ↓

Panama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Chile or draw

87%

Chile or Panama

83%

Draw or Panama

30%

Winning margin

Chile wins by 2+

47%

Panama wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chile 1+ goals

91%

Chile 2+ goals

70%

Chile 3+ goals

43%

Panama 1+ goals

61%

Panama 2+ goals

24%

Panama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chile (draw refunded)

85%

Panama (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chile at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Panama away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chile attack 2.67 + Panama defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Panama attack 0.80 + Chile defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Chile scores more

70%

level

17%

Panama scores more

13%

Chile at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Nicolás Guerra

Chile · F

9.0

Match Events

2'

Nicolás Guerra↳ Lucas Cepeda

5'

Ariel Uribe

20'

Aimar Modelo← Reyniel Perdomo

25'

Nicolás Guerra↳ Brayan Cortés

25'

Reyniel Perdomo

28'

Fabián Hormazábal

30'

Cecilio WatermanPenalty

42'

Nicolás Guerra↳ Fabián Hormazábal

46'

Dylan Escobar← Fabián Hormazábal

46'

Irving Gudiño← Giovany Herbert

46'

Rafael Mosquera← Kahiser Lenis

46'

Érick Díaz← Orman Davis

53'

Lucas Cepeda↳ Erick Wiemberg

55'

Gustavo Herrera← Cecilio Waterman

57'

Cristian Cuevas← Lucas Cepeda

57'

Marcelo Díaz← Esteban Pavez

57'

Álvaro Madrid← Vicente Pizarro

63'

Janpol Morales

67'

Steffan Pino← Nicolás Guerra

67'

Amable Pinzón← César Yanis

73'

Cristian Cuevas

73'

Branco Ampuero← Sebastián Vegas

76'

Dylan Escobar

78'

Amable Pinzón

80'

Erick Wiemberg

82'

Steffan Pino↳ Ariel Uribe

86'

Marcelo Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChilePanama

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots11

1Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots11

11On Target1

2Off Target7

2Blocked3

12Inside Box3

3Outside Box8

Passing

68%Possession32%

587Total Passes268

524Accurate Passes207

89%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Chile vs Panama

Chile beat Panama 6-1 in Friendlies on February 8, 2025.

Goals: Nicolás Guerra (2', 25', 42'), Ariel Uribe (5'), Cecilio Waterman (30' pen), Lucas Cepeda (53'), Steffan Pino (82').

Chile controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos in Santiago de Chile.

Chile vs Panama — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chile vs Panama