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Chile vs Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Chile
Chile
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guinea
Guinea
10/15/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio José Rico Pérez (Alicante)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Chile62%
×Draw21%
Guinea17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chile
1.97
Guinea
0.91

Chile creates 116% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chile
2.67
Guinea
0.73

allows per match

Chile
1.08
Guinea
1.27

finishing

Chile+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chile ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chile or draw
83%
Chile or Guinea
79%
Draw or Guinea
38%

Winning margin

Chile wins by 2+
37%
Guinea wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chile 1+ goals
86%
Chile 2+ goals
58%
Chile 3+ goals
31%
Guinea 1+ goals
60%
Guinea 2+ goals
23%
Guinea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chile (draw refunded)
79%
Guinea (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chile at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chile attack 2.67 + Guinea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.97

Guinea attack 0.73 + Chile defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chile scores more
62%
level
21%
Guinea scores more
17%

Chile at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chile 3 – 2 Guinea

Chile beat Guinea 3-2 in Friendlies on October 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez (Alicante).