Chikhura Sachkhere 3–5 Saburtalo II: Result & Stats

Chikhura Sachkhere

3 – 5

Saburtalo II

5/13/2023

David Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere12%

×Draw13%

Saburtalo II74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chikhura SachkhereExpected goals in this matchSaburtalo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

3.38

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.36

Saburtalo II

3.38

Saburtalo II creates 149% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

3.00

3.75

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.50

Saburtalo II

3.00

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

3.75

Saburtalo II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Saburtalo II →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–45%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw

26%

Chikhura Sachkhere or Saburtalo II

87%

Draw or Saburtalo II

88%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

Saburtalo II wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

74%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

39%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

16%

Saburtalo II 1+ goals

96%

Saburtalo II 2+ goals

84%

Saburtalo II 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

14%

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.50 + Saburtalo II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Saburtalo II attack 3.00 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

12%

level

13%

Saburtalo II scores more

74%

Saburtalo II at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff