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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
7/23/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 4Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere53%
×Draw26%
Merani Tbilisi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.50
Merani Tbilisi
0.83

Chikhura Sachkhere creates 81% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
Merani Tbilisi
0.11

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
Merani Tbilisi
1.56

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
79%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Merani Tbilisi
74%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
47%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
27%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
78%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
44%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
19%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
56%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
20%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
72%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Merani Tbilisi attack 0.11 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
53%
level
26%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
21%

Chikhura Sachkhere at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chikhura Sachkhere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chikhura Sachkhere vs Merani Tbilisi

Chikhura Sachkhere beat Merani Tbilisi 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga on July 23, 2020.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni in Tbilisi.