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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
5/25/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 14Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere30%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Zugdidi48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.55
Dinamo Zugdidi
2.00

Dinamo Zugdidi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
0.89
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.16

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
2.83
Dinamo Zugdidi
2.20

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Dinamo Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
52%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Dinamo Zugdidi
78%
Draw or Dinamo Zugdidi
70%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
79%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
46%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
59%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
39%
Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

Dinamo Zugdidi away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.89 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.16 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
30%
level
22%
Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
48%

Dinamo Zugdidi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chikhura Sachkhere vs Dinamo Zugdidi

Dinamo Zugdidi beat Chikhura Sachkhere 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 25, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Ivantsminda.