Chikhura Sachkhere 2–0 Dinamo Tbilisi

Chikhura Sachkhere

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Tbilisi

11/30/2020

Erovnuli Liga · Round 8Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere30%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Tbilisi45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chikhura SachkhereExpected goals in this matchDinamo Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.56

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.23

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.56

Dinamo Tbilisi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 127 away

1.43

creates per match

1.57

1.54

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.43

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.57

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.54

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw

55%

Chikhura Sachkhere or Dinamo Tbilisi

75%

Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi

70%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

13%

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

71%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

35%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

13%

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals

46%

Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

40%

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.03 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.57 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

30%

level

25%

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more

45%

Dinamo Tbilisi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff