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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Dila — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dila
Dila
7/4/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 2Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere33%
×Draw26%
Dila41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.25
Dila
1.43

Dila creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 125 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
Dila
1.31

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
Dila
1.06

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Dila+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Dila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
59%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Dila
74%
Draw or Dila
67%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
14%
Dila wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
71%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
36%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
13%
Dila 1+ goals
76%
Dila 2+ goals
42%
Dila 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
44%
Dila (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Dila away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Dila defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dila attack 1.31 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
33%
level
26%
Dila scores more
41%

Dila at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Chikhura Sachkhere 0–2 Dila

Dila beat Chikhura Sachkhere 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni in Tbilisi.