Chikhura Sachkhere 0–1 Dila: Result & Stats

Chikhura Sachkhere

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dila

I. Modebadze 68'

9/20/2015

Erovnuli Liga · Regular SeasonTsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere33%

×Draw26%

Dila42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chikhura SachkhereExpected goals in this matchDila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.46

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.27

Dila

1.46

Dila creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 123 away

1.48

creates per match

1.34

1.58

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.48

Dila

1.34

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.58

Dila

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Dila+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Dila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw

58%

Chikhura Sachkhere or Dila

74%

Draw or Dila

67%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

14%

Dila wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

72%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

36%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

14%

Dila 1+ goals

77%

Dila 2+ goals

43%

Dila 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

44%

Dila (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Dila away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.48 + Dila defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dila attack 1.34 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

33%

level

26%

Dila scores more

42%

Dila at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

G. Tchankotadze← T. Tchetchelashvili

46'

G. Gogua← G. Eristavi

57'

R. Akhalkatsi← M. Kvirkvia

68'

I. Modebadze

74'

G. Koripadze← M. Sardalishvili

80'

T. Mumladze← B. Dekanoidze

80'

G. Iluridze← O. Martsvaladze

Chikhura

Dila

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Pruidze

30'▲G. Tchankotadze←▼T. Tchetchelashvili

74'▲G. Koripadze←▼M. Sardalishvili

80'▲T. Mumladze←▼B. Dekanoidze

Chikhura Sachkhere substitutes

TchankotadzeKoripadzeMumladzeMegrelishviliJokhadzeKakashviliMtskerashvili

Manager: I. Modebadze

46'▲G. Gogua←▼G. Eristavi

57'▲R. Akhalkatsi←▼M. Kvirkvia

80'▲G. Iluridze←▼O. Martsvaladze

Dila substitutes

GoguaAkhalkatsiIluridzeKhurtsilavaPapavaMashukovMujrishvili