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Chievo vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
11/25/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 13Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Chievo56%
×Draw25%
Virtus Entella19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
1.59
Virtus Entella
0.82

Chievo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 57 away

creates per match

Chievo
1.54
Virtus Entella
0.82

allows per match

Chievo
0.82
Virtus Entella
1.65

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
81%
Chievo or Virtus Entella
75%
Draw or Virtus Entella
44%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
30%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
80%
Chievo 2+ goals
47%
Chievo 3+ goals
21%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
56%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
20%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
74%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 1.54 + Virtus Entella defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Virtus Entella attack 0.82 + Chievo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chievo scores more
56%
level
25%
Virtus Entella scores more
19%

Chievo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Chievo 2–1 Virtus Entella

Chievo beat Virtus Entella 2-1 in Serie B on November 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.