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Chievo vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
3/8/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 27Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Chievo53%
×Draw25%
Vicenza Virtus22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
1.59
Vicenza Virtus
0.92

Chievo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 44 away

creates per match

Chievo
1.54
Vicenza Virtus
1.02

allows per match

Chievo
0.82
Vicenza Virtus
1.64

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Vicenza Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
78%
Chievo or Vicenza Virtus
75%
Draw or Vicenza Virtus
47%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
28%
Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
80%
Chievo 2+ goals
47%
Chievo 3+ goals
21%
Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
60%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
23%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
71%
Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 1.54 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Chievo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chievo scores more
53%
level
25%
Vicenza Virtus scores more
22%

Chievo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Chievo 1–2 Vicenza Virtus

Vicenza Virtus beat Chievo 2-1 in Serie B on March 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.