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Chievo vs Nuova Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
3/9/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 28Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Chievo53%
×Draw26%
Nuova Cosenza21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
1.54
Nuova Cosenza
0.86

Chievo creates 79% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 134 away

creates per match

Chievo
1.54
Nuova Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Chievo
0.82
Nuova Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Nuova Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
79%
Chievo or Nuova Cosenza
74%
Draw or Nuova Cosenza
47%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
28%
Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
79%
Chievo 2+ goals
45%
Chievo 3+ goals
20%
Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
58%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
21%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
72%
Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 1.54 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Chievo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chievo scores more
53%
level
26%
Nuova Cosenza scores more
21%

Chievo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chievo vs Nuova Cosenza

Chievo beat Nuova Cosenza 2-0 in Serie B on March 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.