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Chievo vs Lazio — Serie A 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
12/2/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 14Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chievo22%
×Draw24%
Lazio54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
0.97
Lazio
1.67

Lazio creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 140 away

creates per match

Chievo
0.74
Lazio
1.40

allows per match

Chievo
1.95
Lazio
1.21

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
46%
Chievo or Lazio
76%
Draw or Lazio
78%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
8%
Lazio wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
62%
Chievo 2+ goals
25%
Chievo 3+ goals
7%
Lazio 1+ goals
81%
Lazio 2+ goals
50%
Lazio 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
29%
Lazio (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.21 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 0.74 + Lazio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Lazio attack 1.40 + Chievo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chievo scores more
22%
level
24%
Lazio scores more
54%

Lazio at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chievo vs Lazio

Chievo and Lazio drew 1-1 in Serie A on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.