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Chievo vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
2/24/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 25Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chievo31%
×Draw26%
Genoa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
1.19
Genoa
1.45

Genoa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 118 away

creates per match

Chievo
0.74
Genoa
0.95

allows per match

Chievo
1.95
Genoa
1.64

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
57%
Chievo or Genoa
74%
Draw or Genoa
69%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
13%
Genoa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
70%
Chievo 2+ goals
33%
Chievo 3+ goals
12%
Genoa 1+ goals
77%
Genoa 2+ goals
42%
Genoa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
42%
Genoa (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Genoa away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 0.74 + Genoa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.19

Genoa attack 0.95 + Chievo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chievo scores more
31%
level
26%
Genoa scores more
43%

Genoa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chievo 0 – 0 Genoa

Chievo and Genoa drew 0-0 in Serie A on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.