Chievo 0–3 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Chievo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Cagliari

3/29/2019

Serie A · Round 29Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chievo32%

×Draw26%

Cagliari42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChievoExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.43

Chievo

1.21

Cagliari

1.43

Cagliari creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 118 away

0.74

creates per match

0.90

1.95

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Chievo

0.74

Cagliari

0.90

allows per match

Chievo

1.95

Cagliari

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par

Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chievo or draw

58%

Chievo or Cagliari

74%

Draw or Cagliari

68%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+

13%

Cagliari wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals

70%

Chievo 2+ goals

34%

Chievo 3+ goals

12%

Cagliari 1+ goals

76%

Cagliari 2+ goals

42%

Cagliari 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)

43%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.68 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 0.74 + Cagliari defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cagliari attack 0.90 + Chievo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chievo scores more

32%

level

26%

Cagliari scores more

42%

Cagliari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff