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Chievo vs Atalanta — Serie A 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Atalanta
Atalanta
10/21/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 9Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chievo17%
×Draw22%
Atalanta61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
0.91
Atalanta
1.93

Atalanta creates 112% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 135 away

creates per match

Chievo
0.74
Atalanta
1.91

allows per match

Chievo
1.95
Atalanta
1.07

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
39%
Chievo or Atalanta
78%
Draw or Atalanta
83%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
6%
Atalanta wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
60%
Chievo 2+ goals
23%
Chievo 3+ goals
6%
Atalanta 1+ goals
85%
Atalanta 2+ goals
57%
Atalanta 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
22%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.07 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 0.74 + Atalanta defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

Atalanta attack 1.91 + Chievo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chievo scores more
17%
level
22%
Atalanta scores more
61%

Atalanta at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chievo vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Chievo 5-1 in Serie A on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.