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Chievo vs AS Roma — Serie A 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AS Roma
AS Roma
2/8/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 23Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chievo24%
×Draw24%
AS Roma53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
1.06
AS Roma
1.71

AS Roma creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 130 away

creates per match

Chievo
0.74
AS Roma
1.47

allows per match

Chievo
1.95
AS Roma
1.37

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
AS Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
47%
Chievo or AS Roma
76%
Draw or AS Roma
76%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
9%
AS Roma wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
65%
Chievo 2+ goals
29%
Chievo 3+ goals
9%
AS Roma 1+ goals
82%
AS Roma 2+ goals
51%
AS Roma 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
31%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 0.74 + AS Roma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

AS Roma attack 1.47 + Chievo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chievo scores more
24%
level
24%
AS Roma scores more
53%

AS Roma at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Chievo 0–3 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Chievo 3-0 in Serie A on February 8, 2019.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.