Chievo Verona U19 6–1 Venezia U19: Result & Stats

Chievo Verona U19

FT

6 – 1

Venezia U19

10/21/2020

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 1Centrio Sportivo Bottagisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chievo Verona U1950%

×Draw21%

Venezia U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chievo Verona U19Expected goals in this matchVenezia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.66

Chievo Verona U19

2.21

Venezia U19

1.66

Chievo Verona U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 85 away

2.73

creates per match

1.58

1.73

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Chievo Verona U19

2.73

Venezia U19

1.58

allows per match

Chievo Verona U19

1.73

Venezia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chievo Verona U19+0.00on par

Venezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo Verona U19 ↓

Venezia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Chievo Verona U19 or draw

71%

Chievo Verona U19 or Venezia U19

79%

Draw or Venezia U19

50%

Winning margin

Chievo Verona U19 wins by 2+

30%

Venezia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chievo Verona U19 1+ goals

89%

Chievo Verona U19 2+ goals

65%

Chievo Verona U19 3+ goals

38%

Venezia U19 1+ goals

81%

Venezia U19 2+ goals

49%

Venezia U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Chievo Verona U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Venezia U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo Verona U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Venezia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.68 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo Verona U19 attack 2.73 + Venezia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.21

Venezia U19 attack 1.58 + Chievo Verona U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chievo Verona U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Venezia U19 scores more

29%

Chievo Verona U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chievo Verona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff