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Chievo Verona U19 vs Cremonese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Chievo Verona U19
Chievo Verona U19
FT
3 – 3
Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
4/6/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 11Centrio Sportivo Bottagisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chievo Verona U1938%
×Draw22%
Cremonese U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo Verona U19
1.77
Cremonese U19
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 55 away

creates per match

Chievo Verona U19
2.73
Cremonese U19
1.96

allows per match

Chievo Verona U19
1.73
Cremonese U19
0.82

finishing

Chievo Verona U19+0.00on par
Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo Verona U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Chievo Verona U19 or draw
60%
Chievo Verona U19 or Cremonese U19
78%
Draw or Cremonese U19
62%

Winning margin

Chievo Verona U19 wins by 2+
19%
Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chievo Verona U19 1+ goals
83%
Chievo Verona U19 2+ goals
53%
Chievo Verona U19 3+ goals
26%
Cremonese U19 1+ goals
84%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
55%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Chievo Verona U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo Verona U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo Verona U19 attack 2.73 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + Chievo Verona U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chievo Verona U19 scores more
38%
level
22%
Cremonese U19 scores more
40%

Cremonese U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Chievo Verona U19 3–3 Cremonese U19

Chievo Verona U19 and Cremonese U19 drew 3-3 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Centrio Sportivo Bottagisio in Verona.