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Chico vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Chico
Chico
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Junior
Junior
2/19/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 5Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Chico40%
×Draw30%
Junior30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.14
Junior
0.96

Chico creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 201 away

creates per match

Chico
1.14
Junior
0.96

allows per match

Chico
0.97
Junior
1.14

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chico or draw
70%
Chico or Junior
70%
Draw or Junior
60%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
17%
Junior wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
68%
Chico 2+ goals
32%
Chico 3+ goals
11%
Junior 1+ goals
62%
Junior 2+ goals
25%
Junior 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
57%
Junior (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 110 matches

Junior away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.14 + Junior defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Junior attack 0.96 + Chico defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chico scores more
40%
level
30%
Junior scores more
30%

Chico at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chico 0 – 2 Junior

Junior beat Chico 2-0 in Primera A on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.