Chico vs Independiente Medellin

Chico

Preview

23:10

Independiente Medellin

9/12/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 10Estadio La Independencia

Big match

35%

Chico

model favours

35%31%34%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–0

likely score

68%

under 2.5 goals

39%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Chico35%

×Draw31%

Independiente Medellin34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.98

Chico

0.99

Independiente Medellin

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.02

creates per match

1.04

0.92

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Chico

1.02

Independiente Medellin

1.04

allows per match

Chico

0.92

Independiente Medellin

0.97

+0.78scores more than expected

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Chico+0.78scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.46scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chico or draw

66%

Chico or Independiente Medellin

69%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

65%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

13%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

63%

Chico 2+ goals

26%

Chico 3+ goals

8%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

62%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

50%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 10 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.02 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Independiente Medellin attack 1.04 + Chico defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Chico scores more

35%

level

31%

Independiente Medellin scores more

34%

Chico at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — Chico 1 vs Independiente Medellin 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Chico

Balanced

Independiente Medellin

Attack-heavy

47%Possession53%

77%Pass accuracy80%

10.8Shots14.1

0.87xGBiggest gap1.29

ChicoIndependiente Medellin

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Chico

2

Draws

5

Independiente Medellin

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 20%

0–22–00–30–31–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Chico

LDWDW

Medellin

WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff