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Chico vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Chico
Chico
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
4/2/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 15Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Chico44%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pereira28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.28
Deportivo Pereira
0.95

Chico creates 35% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 131 away

creates per match

Chico
1.14
Deportivo Pereira
0.93

allows per match

Chico
0.97
Deportivo Pereira
1.43

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chico or draw
72%
Chico or Deportivo Pereira
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
56%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
72%
Chico 2+ goals
37%
Chico 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 110 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.14 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Chico defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chico scores more
44%
level
28%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
28%

Chico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Chico 1–0 Deportivo Pereira

Chico beat Deportivo Pereira 1-0 in Primera A on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.