Chico 2–1 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Chico

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

J. Molina 87' (pen)

E. Arango 21'

L. Perez 62'

5/18/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chico47%

×Draw30%

Alianza Valledupar23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.77

Chico

1.22

Alianza Valledupar

0.77

Chico creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

0.79

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Chico

1.00

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Chico

0.79

Alianza Valledupar

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chico+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chico or draw

77%

Chico or Alianza Valledupar

70%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

53%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

21%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

70%

Chico 2+ goals

34%

Chico 3+ goals

12%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

54%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

18%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

67%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.00 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Chico defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chico scores more

47%

level

30%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

23%

Chico at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Molina

Chico · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

L. Saldana

13'

Y. Lopez

15'

D. Denis

15'

D. A. Ramirez Raigosa

21'

E. Arango↳ D. A. Ramirez Raigosa

46'

J. Quiceno← Y. Lopez

46'

J. Munoz← J. Castillo

60'

A. Banguero

61'

J. Figueroa← L. Saldana

61'

M. Gil← J. Munoz

62'

L. Perez

67'

S. Colon← E. Camargo

67'

S. Salazar← K. Londono

81'

F. Pardo

87'

J. MolinaPenalty

90+10'

E. Arango

90+5'

A. Aedo← D. A. Ramirez Raigosa

90+13'

J. Negrete← J. Molina

90+6'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← W. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicoAlianza

Overview

37%Possession63%

12Total Shots10

6Corners5

13Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target2

7Off Target5

2Blocked3

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

230Total Passes402

178Accurate Passes336

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls7

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1