Chico 2–2 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Chico

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Alianza Valledupar

B. Moreno 45+3'

C. Pérez 9'

C. Pérez 90+5'

C. Palomeque 22'

3/8/2020

Primera A · Round 8Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Chico47%

×Draw28%

Alianza Valledupar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.86

Chico

1.32

Alianza Valledupar

0.86

Chico creates 53% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 167 away

1.14

creates per match

0.75

0.97

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chico

1.14

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Chico

0.97

Alianza Valledupar

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chico+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chico or draw

76%

Chico or Alianza Valledupar

72%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

53%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

22%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

73%

Chico 2+ goals

38%

Chico 3+ goals

15%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

58%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

21%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

66%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 110 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.14 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Chico defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chico scores more

47%

level

28%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

24%

Chico at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. Pérez

Chico · D

7.6

Match Events

9'

C. Pérez

18'

Efrain Cortes

22'

C. Palomeque↳ C. Hinestroza

24'

Juan Mancilla

36'

D. Alfonzo← E. Cortés

45+3'

56'

58'

61'

66'

66'

J. Hernández← C. Mancilla

68'

70'

71'

79'

81'

84'

85'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicoAlianza

Overview

38%Possession62%

11Total Shots9

1Corners3

17Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target7

5Off Target2

2Blocked0

5Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

273Total Passes420

190Accurate Passes345

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls21

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0