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Chiclana vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Chiclana
Chiclana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
4/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 29Estadio Municipal del Chiclana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiclana46%
×Draw27%
Ceuta II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiclana
1.38
Ceuta II
0.97

Chiclana creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Chiclana
1.35
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Chiclana
1.12
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Chiclana+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiclana ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chiclana or draw
74%
Chiclana or Ceuta II
73%
Draw or Ceuta II
54%

Winning margin

Chiclana wins by 2+
22%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chiclana 1+ goals
75%
Chiclana 2+ goals
40%
Chiclana 3+ goals
16%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
62%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
25%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chiclana (draw refunded)
64%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiclana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiclana attack 1.35 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Chiclana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chiclana scores more
46%
level
27%
Ceuta II scores more
26%

Chiclana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chiclana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiclana vs Ceuta II

Chiclana and Ceuta II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal del Chiclana in Chiclana de la Frontera.