Chiclana 0–2 Atlético Central: Result & Stats

Chiclana

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Central

10/26/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio Municipal del Chiclana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiclana40%

×Draw30%

Atlético Central30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChiclanaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.95

Chiclana

1.13

Atlético Central

0.95

Chiclana creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

1.35

creates per match

0.77

1.12

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Chiclana

1.35

Atlético Central

0.77

allows per match

Chiclana

1.12

Atlético Central

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiclana+0.00on par

Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiclana ↓

Atlético Central →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chiclana or draw

70%

Chiclana or Atlético Central

70%

Draw or Atlético Central

60%

Winning margin

Chiclana wins by 2+

16%

Atlético Central wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chiclana 1+ goals

68%

Chiclana 2+ goals

31%

Chiclana 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Central 1+ goals

61%

Atlético Central 2+ goals

25%

Atlético Central 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Chiclana (draw refunded)

57%

Atlético Central (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chiclana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chiclana attack 1.35 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Chiclana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chiclana scores more

40%

level

30%

Atlético Central scores more

30%

Chiclana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chiclana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff