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Chicken Wings vs ToTe — Suomen Cup 2018

Chicken Wings
Chicken Wings
FT
0 – 5
ToTe
ToTe
4/1/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chicken Wings4%
×Draw8%
ToTe88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicken Wings
0.67
ToTe
3.50

ToTe creates 422% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chicken Wings
0.33
ToTe
4.00

allows per match

Chicken Wings
3.00
ToTe
1.00

finishing

Chicken Wings+0.00on par
ToTe+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicken Wings ↓

ToTe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–312%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Chicken Wings or draw
12%
Chicken Wings or ToTe
92%
Draw or ToTe
96%

Winning margin

Chicken Wings wins by 2+
1%
ToTe wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

Chicken Wings 1+ goals
49%
Chicken Wings 2+ goals
15%
Chicken Wings 3+ goals
3%
ToTe 1+ goals
97%
ToTe 2+ goals
85%
ToTe 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Chicken Wings (draw refunded)
4%
ToTe (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicken Wings at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

ToTe away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicken Wings attack 0.33 + ToTe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

ToTe attack 4.00 + Chicken Wings defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Chicken Wings scores more
4%
level
8%
ToTe scores more
88%

ToTe at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "ToTe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicken Wings vs ToTe

ToTe beat Chicken Wings 5-0 in Suomen Cup on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.