Chicken Wings 1–1 Ponnistajat: Result & Stats

Chicken Wings

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ponnistajat

3/22/2024

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölön Pallokenttä 6 tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chicken Wings3%

×Draw9%

Ponnistajat88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicken WingsExpected goals in this matchPonnistajat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.39

2.95

Chicken Wings

0.39

Ponnistajat

2.95

Ponnistajat creates 656% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.33

creates per match

2.89

3.00

allows per match

0.44

creates per match

Chicken Wings

0.33

Ponnistajat

2.89

allows per match

Chicken Wings

3.00

Ponnistajat

0.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicken Wings+0.00on par

Ponnistajat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicken Wings ↓

Ponnistajat →

0–04%

0–111%

0–216%

0–316%

0–412%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–00%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chicken Wings or draw

12%

Chicken Wings or Ponnistajat

91%

Draw or Ponnistajat

97%

Winning margin

Chicken Wings wins by 2+

Ponnistajat wins by 2+

70%

Team goals

Chicken Wings 1+ goals

32%

Chicken Wings 2+ goals

Chicken Wings 3+ goals

Ponnistajat 1+ goals

95%

Ponnistajat 2+ goals

79%

Ponnistajat 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Chicken Wings (draw refunded)

Ponnistajat (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chicken Wings at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Ponnistajat away — creates 2.89, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chicken Wings attack 0.33 + Ponnistajat defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.39

Ponnistajat attack 2.89 + Chicken Wings defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 88%?"

Chicken Wings scores more

level

Ponnistajat scores more

88%

Ponnistajat at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Ponnistajat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff