Chicken Inn 1–0 Whawha: Result & Stats

Chicken Inn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Whawha

B. Muza 75'

9/24/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 28Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chicken Inn67%

×Draw23%

Whawha10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicken InnExpected goals in this matchWhawha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.50

Chicken Inn

1.70

Whawha

0.50

Chicken Inn creates 240% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

0.35

0.65

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Chicken Inn

1.11

Whawha

0.35

allows per match

Chicken Inn

0.65

Whawha

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicken Inn+0.00on par

Whawha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicken Inn ↓

Whawha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chicken Inn or draw

90%

Chicken Inn or Whawha

77%

Draw or Whawha

33%

Winning margin

Chicken Inn wins by 2+

39%

Whawha wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Chicken Inn 1+ goals

82%

Chicken Inn 2+ goals

51%

Chicken Inn 3+ goals

24%

Whawha 1+ goals

39%

Whawha 2+ goals

9%

Whawha 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Chicken Inn (draw refunded)

87%

Whawha (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicken Inn at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.65 · 96 matches

Whawha away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicken Inn attack 1.11 + Whawha defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Whawha attack 0.35 + Chicken Inn defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chicken Inn scores more

67%

level

23%

Whawha scores more

10%

Chicken Inn at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chicken Inn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

B. Muza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff