Chicken Inn 3–1 Mushowani Stars: Result & Stats

Chicken Inn

FT

3 – 1

Mushowani Stars

7/6/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 13Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chicken Inn51%

×Draw28%

Mushowani Stars21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicken InnExpected goals in this matchMushowani Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.74

Chicken Inn

1.33

Mushowani Stars

0.74

Chicken Inn creates 80% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 18 away

1.11

creates per match

0.83

0.65

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Chicken Inn

1.11

Mushowani Stars

0.83

allows per match

Chicken Inn

0.65

Mushowani Stars

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicken Inn+0.00on par

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicken Inn ↓

Mushowani Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chicken Inn or draw

79%

Chicken Inn or Mushowani Stars

72%

Draw or Mushowani Stars

49%

Winning margin

Chicken Inn wins by 2+

24%

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chicken Inn 1+ goals

74%

Chicken Inn 2+ goals

38%

Chicken Inn 3+ goals

15%

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals

52%

Mushowani Stars 2+ goals

17%

Mushowani Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chicken Inn (draw refunded)

71%

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicken Inn at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.65 · 96 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicken Inn attack 1.11 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Chicken Inn defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chicken Inn scores more

51%

level

28%

Mushowani Stars scores more

21%

Chicken Inn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chicken Inn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff