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Chicken Inn vs Hwange — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chicken Inn
Chicken Inn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hwange
Hwange
4/24/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 8Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chicken Inn51%
×Draw30%
Hwange19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicken Inn
1.24
Hwange
0.63

Chicken Inn creates 97% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 52 away

creates per match

Chicken Inn
1.11
Hwange
0.60

allows per match

Chicken Inn
0.65
Hwange
1.37

finishing

Chicken Inn+0.00on par
Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicken Inn ↓

Hwange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chicken Inn or draw
81%
Chicken Inn or Hwange
70%
Draw or Hwange
49%

Winning margin

Chicken Inn wins by 2+
23%
Hwange wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chicken Inn 1+ goals
71%
Chicken Inn 2+ goals
35%
Chicken Inn 3+ goals
13%
Hwange 1+ goals
47%
Hwange 2+ goals
13%
Hwange 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chicken Inn (draw refunded)
73%
Hwange (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicken Inn at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.65 · 96 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicken Inn attack 1.11 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Hwange attack 0.60 + Chicken Inn defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chicken Inn scores more
51%
level
30%
Hwange scores more
19%

Chicken Inn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chicken Inn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicken Inn vs Hwange

Chicken Inn beat Hwange 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.